Research

My work draws upon the theoretical insights of political economy of development and economic sociology to examine the organizational changes that underpin industrial transformations in emerging economies. By deploying the analytical tools of process-tracing, cross-case comparisons and meta-analysis, I advance our understanding of the variation in the processes and outcomes of these momentous shifts. Not only do the findings of my work contribute to theories of industrial change and transformation, but, in addressing the changing role of state and foreign aid agencies, trade associations and global buyers, also inform the design of institutions focused on development in the Global South.

Figure notes: Mill in Guatemala’s sugar industry. Source: Molina Calderon, 2005.

Publications and articles in progress:

Spurred to Upgrade: A Review of Triggers and Consequences of Industrial Upgrading in the Global Value Chain Literature (co-authored with Seth Pipkin)

World Development (forthcoming) [Download PDF]

Abstract: The Global Value Chains (GVC) literature intervenes in today’s challenging development context by focusing on the means by which developing-country industries can ‘upgrade’ their market positions and outcomes for workers. Yet while this literature has produced hundreds of rich empirical case studies, there has to date been no attempt to systematically analyze this case literature for lessons regarding the antecedents and consequences of the key outcome of upgrading. This paper undertakes a systematic analysis of a representative sample of 45 case studies of primary product and light manufacturing industries in developing countries. These studies were coded for factors involved in initiating and sustaining upgrading processes, the results of upgrading, and the role of local institutions in these processes. We find that contrary to the major assumptions of the literature, advanced-country buyers are not the main force in the initiation of industrial upgrading. Rather, in most cases, developing-country firms initiate upgrades when pushed by “shocks” of market vulnerability, usually produced by state policies, that force them to seek to change their status quo operations. Once initiated, upgrading processes can produce a wide spectrum of results – from little to no advancement in market position (‘treadmilling’) to vaulting to the forefront of a global industry (‘leaps forward’) – on the basis of the sources of learning present in the local institutional environment, such as state agencies and business associations. We also identify conditions under which state participation in upgrading processes can lead to increased local institutional capacity. Together, these findings suggest a framework for upgrading that we refer to as an ‘induced search’ model. This model has important implications for future research on the dynamics of industrial upgrading in developing countries, techniques of state intervention, and processes of mutually supportive learning between actors in the public and private sector.

Self-Discovery in the Dark: The Demand Side of Industrial Policy in Latin America (co-authored with Seth Pipkin)

Review of International Political Economy, 23(1), 2016 [Download PDF]

Abstract: Under what conditions do businesses choose to reconsider their immediate, short-term competitive niches and engage in long-term, systematic thinking by searching for new business models? This crucial question is left aside by the contemporary literature on industrial policy insofar as it assumes that the primary barrier to industrial upgrading and learning is on the ‘supply side’ of states facilitating private firms’ pursuit of their already-established drives. We inquire into the necessary conditions for businesses’ engagement with long-term thinking and innovation in contexts that reinforce preferences to stay in low-innovation, high-rent niches. Drawing from five cases in ‘inertial’ Latin American competitive environments where industries nevertheless voluntarily broke free of inertial trajectories to seek new approaches to business, we find that conditions of ‘systemic vulnerability’ – a combination of shocks in demand, sectoral competitiveness and civil/social conflict – force business elites to reconsider their constituents and investment time frames. Based on these observations, we contribute to theories of industrial policy and industrial upgrading by identifying the ‘demand side’ factors that affect whether firms are prepared to be competent partners in today’s ‘assistive,’ market-reinforcing models of industrial policy.

A Vocation for Industrial Transformation: Ideology, Organizational Transformation, and Upgrading in the Guatemalan Sugar Industry

Studies in Comparative International Development, 49(3), September 2014 [Download PDF]

Abstract: Between the late 1970s and the 2000s, the Guatemalan sugar industry transitioned from a production model with deplorable labor conditions and low productivity to a highly efficient model with improved conditions. This paper traces the origin and diffusion of this upgraded model to a small team of managers motivated by Elite Solidarism, an interpretation of the Vatican II Catholic Social Doctrine. It suggests that this ideology played the central causal role in this process of industrial transformation, as managers drew upon it to define the specific practices of the new model at one particular mill and then encouraged its diffusion.

Los Apóstoles del Desarrollo y la Modernización de la Industria Azucarera Guatemalteca

Article manuscript, do not cite [Download PDF]

Resumen. Durante los 1980s, la industria azucarera guatemalteca modernizó su modelo de negocios, mejorando las condiciones laborales de la mayoría de sus trabajadores; invirtiendo extensamente en su capital de producción, y en la capacitación y profesionalización de su fuerza laboral; y diversificando sus productos y mercados. Para explicar este singular caso de modernización, en el presente estudio se desarrolla un marco teórico que combina dos esquemas. Primero, con base en el esquema de vulnerabilidades (Fuentes y Pipkin 2016), se sugiere que a partir de los 1970s, y hasta principios de los 1980s, la industria enfrentó la amenaza existencial de una serie de condiciones de vulnerabilidad, incluidas la movilización de sus trabajadores y el colapso de sus principales mercados. Esta crisis inspiró la búsqueda de nuevas prácticas y estrategias de negocios. Segundo, con base en el esquema de “lógicas institucionales” (Thornton et al 2012, Friedland y Alford 1991), se arguye que en esta búsqueda, un pequeño grupo de profesionales, o “apóstoles del desarrollo,” inspirado en la lógica institucional religiosa, desarrolló un conjunto de novedosas prácticas y estrategias en un ingenio de la industria. Seguidamente, estos mismos apóstoles del desarrollo divulgaron las prácticas y estrategias a otros ingenios, transformando a la industria. El artículo concluye con una discusión del marco teórico y el caso empírico de la industria azucarera, considerando sus implicaciones teóricas y prácticas.

The Divergent Institutional Logics of Industrial Change: A comparison of export-cheese processors in Nicaragua

Article manuscript, do not cite [Download PDF]

Abstract: According to the industrial policy literature, collective action dilemmas often generate market failures that hamper industrialization processes among private sector firms. The proposed solution, favoring state intervention, builds on a conception of these firms as solely profit-maximizing and largely unable to independently solve collection action dilemmas. This article offers a more nuanced portrayal of the private sector and its behavior. It draws upon the institutional logics literature to claim that the logics of institutional orders other than the market, such as the family or community, may similarly impinge upon firms, endowing them with contrasting organizational priorities and understandings of group boundaries, two factors which, together, produce divergent responses to collective action dilemmas. The article illustrates this theoretical contribution through the case of the industrial transformation of two types of Nicaraguan cheese processors imbued with competing familial and community logics. It concludes with a review of the article’s implications for industrial policy.

Developmental Professionals, Industrial Transformation and Mutual Gains in Nicaragua’s Cheese-Processing Industry

Article manuscript, do not cite [Download PDF]

Abstract: How might industrial transformations with mutual gains unfold in late-developer contexts devoid of the State’s helping hand or the pedagogical guidance of global value chain buyers? This article addresses this question through a case study of a set of cheese-processing cooperatives in Nicaragua’s northern agricultural frontier. It traces the cooperatives’ adoption of a new, upgraded “Gebhardian” organizational model – incorporating improvements in primary production and processing – to the actions of a team of “developmental professionals.” Drawing upon ideational accounts in political science and sociology, the article then suggests that two conditions set these professionals apart from other comparable actors: their adherence to a Revisionist Marxist ideology; and their base of expert knowledge. The article concludes with a discussion of the case’s implications for industrial transformation and ideational theories.

From Templates to Results: Policy Models and Technological Learning in the Mexican and Brazilian Automotive and Petroleum Industries, 1975-2000 (with Seth Pipkin)

Article manuscript, do not cite [Download PDF]

Abstract: Although technological learning is indispensable for economic transformation in developing countries, the development literature remains unclear on the conditions most likely to foster it. This study builds on recent research on industrial policy by investigating the relationship between national level industrial policy models and industry-level technological learning. Through a controlled case comparison of the automotive and petroleum industries in Mexico and Brazil from 1975 to 2000, we develop a framework to predict industry-level learning that emphasizes prior investment in learning, exogenous shocks, and the sequenced alternation between policy paradigms over time.

Dissertation:

Apostles and Brigadistas: Industrial Transformations with Social Gains in Two Central American Agro-Industries

Abstract: This dissertation offers an ideational account of the industrial transformation with social gains of two Central American agro-industries during the 1980s and 1990s, the Guatemalan sugar and Nicaraguan cheese industries. Early in this period, both relied on semi-artisanal production processes, poor labor standards and low wages, and a narrow focus on low priced products sold in protected domestic markets. Over the next two decades, processors in both adopted new production models and business strategies that modernized their technologies and work organization, raised labor standards and wages, and repositioned them as formidable competitors in international markets. Remarkably, these industrial transformations occurred in highly adverse political and economic contexts for high-road business, as deep ideological cleavages plunged the countries into bitter civil wars, economic recessions undermined business development, and national states abandoned policies of industrial support.

Paradoxically, the same ideological cleavages that tore these societies apart supplied the materials for two distinct teams of top firm decision-makers, the Apostles of Development in Guatemala and the Cooperative Brigadistas in Nicaragua, to transform the sugar and cheese industries. Spurred on by two distinct ideologies, these teams crafted and disseminated new production models and business strategies. In Guatemala, the motivating ideology was Vatican II Catholic social doctrine and in Nicaragua it was Sandinismo.

To reveal how the Apostles of Development in Guatemala and Cooperative Brigadistas in Nicaragua enacted the general principles of these ideologies to transform firms in their industries, the proposed explanation deploys a model that highlights the role of two intervening variables in shaping their value-rational actions: (a) their particular interpretations of these ideologies, and (b) their shared professional backgrounds. The former impelled these top firm decision-makers to pursue a narrow range of prioritized moral imperatives and aspirations within the body of their ideology. The latter, in turn, directed their actions toward the business realm and supplied the necessary skills, tools and procedures to enact their ideological principles.